At the pre-endorsement conference held Saturday 10/5, over 75% of the votes were for Brynne Kennedy. This means her name will be put on the Consent Calendar at the Fall Endorsing Convention https://www.cdpconvention.org/ scheduled for Nov 15-17, where the final decision on endorsement will be made.
Sierra Forward has done no polling on the 2020 election or its candidates. Our polling both before and immediately after the 2018 election continues to point out that, while this is a challenging district with the highest percentage of Republican voters in all of California, we can win by
Maintaining a solid block of Democratic support. Registered Democrats are 29% of CD-4. In our post-2018 election poll, 87% voted for Morse. While that is up substantially from the 2016 election, we need to continue to improve on that.
Making substantial inroads into the No Party Preference (21% of CD-4 voters) and minor party (5% of CD-4 voters) categories. In our post-2018 election poll, NPPs voted 51 to 49 for Morse. That contrast favorable with the 2016 election, where 75% of NPPs went for McClintock.
Flipping moderate Republicans, particularly in suburban areas. In our post-2018 election poll, just 6% of Republicans voted for Morse.
It is our belief that focusing on local issues such as housing, education, jobs, infrastructure, and climate impacts including wildfires will be the best way to make those inroads. Brynne Kennedy is the only candidate currently campaigning, and we wish her the best as she works on those issues.
Another important fact in our post-2018 election poll was that 50% of the voters had made up their mind months before the election. So, time’s a-wasting!